WASHINGTON, DC (March 9, 2020) – In a study published today, researchers at the George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health (GW Milken Institute SPH) concluded that inadequacies in the Government of Puerto Rico’s Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) planning and delivery were major contributors to the controversy surrounding the death toll from Hurricane Maria.
The researchers also found that insufficient personnel training coupled with mishandling of information gaps led to the unchecked spread of misinformation, which greatly diminished public trust and the government’s ability to effectively manage public health messaging.
The new study, published in the Journal of International Crisis and Risk Communication Research, provides the first in-depth, detailed look at communication failures before and after Hurricane Maria, a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane that made landfall in Puerto Rico on Sept. 20, 2017. The lessons learned and new findings will help Puerto Rico, and other coastal areas worldwide, better prepare for increasingly deadly storms and other natural disasters.
“Effective communication about Hurricane Maria’s impact could have helped to minimize rumors and contribute to the Government of Puerto Rico’s credibility,” said Elizabeth Andrade, DrPH, MPH, an assistant professor of prevention and community health at Milken Institute SPH. “Timely and accurate public health communication after natural disasters can counter the considerable uncertainties that people already have. Communication that is transparent, credible, and trustworthy is critical because that’s what keeps people safe.”
The communications assessment was a component of a widely-publicized three-part study published Aug. 28, 2018 by GW researchers. That independent scientific report found that an estimated 2,975 people died during the six-month period after Hurricane Maria. The same report identified gaps in the communications and death certification systems on the island.
Andrade and her colleagues collected data for the communications assessment from multiple angles: conducting interviews with a sample of Puerto Rican government officials and key stakeholders including, municipal mayors, community leaders, and first responders; reviewing government press releases and spokesperson performance at press conferences; and examining media stories and related social media commentary about the hurricane’s death toll.
Based on an analysis of these data, the team found:
- The government was unprepared for the widespread infrastructure failures caused by Hurricane Maria. Emergency plans in place were appropriate for a Category 1 hurricane and thus vastly underestimated the storm’s impact. Power and telecommunications outages without effective communication contingencies caused major disruptions and delays in mortality reporting and a substantial information vacuum.
- Puerto Rico did not have a formal written Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) plan in place at the time of the storm and key communication personnel and spokespersons had not been CERC-trained. CERC best practices were not applied for communication with the public about mortality.
- Government officials did not call on subject matter experts, take steps to explain initial mortality information gaps, or monitor and counter the resulting spread of rumors that emerged in an attempt to fill these gaps.
- The post-disaster media environment was saturated with numerous conflicting unofficial death counts and incomplete or contradictory information from government officials, which influenced stakeholder perceptions that the government’s communication about mortality was not transparent or credible.
Notably, the study also identified major gaps in national CERC guidelines. Currently, there are no guidelines for communicating in catastrophic disasters, handling information vacuums, or communicating to the public about disaster-related mortality.
“Establishing guidelines in these areas will require more impact communication research,” said Andrade. “But the benefits for public health and safety are clear. Expanding CERC guidelines will have major implications for improving the capacity of disaster managers to prepare for and respond to increasing catastrophic natural disasters.”
The researchers recommend that all jurisdictions, not just Puerto Rico, revisit their plans for communicating in natural disasters. They suggest that CERC planning be expanded to consider catastrophic disaster contexts – where there is substantial damage to infrastructure, communication channels are limited, information vacuums are likely, and the need to communicate about mortality is probable. The research team also highlights the important role that local communities can play in disaster communication that can support greater resilience.
“Mortality Reporting and Rumor Generation: An Assessment of Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico,” was published in the Journal of International Crisis and Risk Communication Research.